Hillary is going to loose tommorrow.  It is not certain by how much, but it looks like somewhere between 7-to-15%.

She is going to go on loosing.  In Nevada, Hillary's lead in the polls will melt faster than a New Hampshire snow ball under the desert sun. She will be crushed in SC by a wave of hope among the AA community.

Basiscally, she faces a month of being pumelled in the press and watching the Obama sunami build. If she wants to win, she has to break his momentum. According to conventional thinking, the only way she can do so is to attack Obama relentlessly:

She tried the "experince" frame in Iowa and that didn't work.  

She is trying an "all talk, and no walk" frame in NH, and that isn't going to work either.  

Of the top three Dems, Obama has by far the most congruence between his life choices, rhetoric, and voting record.  There are some minor inconsistencies, a few scraps of hypocracy, a few changed positions, but according to polls and focus groups, Obama comes across to most voters as the most authentic and the most honest of the top Dems.

Attacks, particularly in a primary, come at a cost. The more Hillary attacks, the more she confirms the meme of her "unlikability" and her "ambition."

Furthermore, Hillary faces a basic structural problem that may be unfixable:  she is primarily a restoration candidate in an election that is overwhelmingly about change.  She muddies her own message when she tries to embrace change.  

All of this suggsts to me that HRC has three choices:

Option #1) She can go after Obama with everything she has got.  She can use surrogates to attack; 527 to shovel the dirt; continue to step up leaked oppo research to the press. In short, empty the arsenal.  Will it work?  I don't think so.  At the very best she might win a war of attrition by stealing Michigan and Florida and depending on Superdelegates.  She would probably have to pull out a win in California and that seems unlikely as Obama's wave continues to build. It would result in a deeply and bitterly divided party.  If as I suspect, she would loose anyway, she is going to do serious damage to her standing in the Senate, and to the Clinton legacy.

Option #2) She can decide to stay in the race, but throw out the conventional playbook and swear-off any additional non-policy attacks.  This just might work, or at least it has as good of chance of working as the Rovian model above.  At least it would get the conversation back on to policy, which is HRC's strength, and off of her personality and style which are a real problem.  It also would help keep the party united and help her standing and future in the Senate.

Option #3) She can bow out gracefully and announce that she intends to do everything she can to help Obama and to work for change in the Senate.  She will get tons of kudos for placing the party ahead of her own ambition, and perhaps position herself to become Majority leader in the Senate.

If I were betting, I would guess that Hillary will choose Option #1.  She has nursed her ambition for too long to let go.  Her staff and advisors are almost all advocates of "old school hardball."  This is the game they know, and this is what they will fall back on in times of trouble.

I hope I am wrong.  I hope that somewhere someone can convince Bill and Hillary to consider their future in the party and the well being of the party and the country.