As I read through the diaries today and through the media reactions to last night's debate, I cannot help thinking that none of this matters.
It's over. Barrack Obama is the next President of the United States. Amazing. There will no doubt be another ten months of battles and skirmishes, but the war is won. Just like World War II was over in the Pacific after the battle of Midway and over in Europe after the landing at Normandy. There will be more battles to fight, but there is no one with the resources to stop Obama.
He is the right man, in the right place, with the right message. No doubt, Team Hillary will continue to go through its death spasms with attempts to retool her message and dump truck loads of mud, but it won't work. This election is about change. A candidate whose primary claim to fame is that she stood side by side with a President who was sworn in 15 years ago is structurally disqualified. Her message is garbled; her image is troubling; she is weighted down be far too much baggage.
Many here do not seem to understand the basic underlying dynamics at work behind Obama's success: message congruence and message resonance.
1) Message congruence: People are responding to Obama because he comes across as authentic and they feel they can trust him at a basic level. Why? Because his life choices, voting record, and campaign rhetoric are largely consistent and congruent. Obama chose to become a community organizer. He chose to become a civil rights lawyer. In office, he has chosen to fight for ethics reform and campaign finace reform. He says he is for change, and people believe him, because he has worked for change.
He says he can bring people together, and his record shows that he has been able to do that as President of the Harvard Law Review. He brought minority advocates and civil liberties advocates and law enforcement types together to reform Illinois' death penalty. He worked with Lugar on loose nukes legislation, and with a bipartisan group to pass ethics reform in Congress. There is congruence between the man and the message that helps make both belieavable.
2) Message resonance: Voters often react to what they don't like about the current occupant of the White House. George Bush has been the personification of stand-alone, stubborn, partisanship. Many voters are tired of gridlock and tired of leadership that does not listen. Obama's combination of progressive values and an inclusive, less confrontational style seems to resonate with a large number of Dems and an even larger number of independents.
Yes, there are many Dems that want to follow the path taken by Rove and the Repubs: take a narrow majority and try to impose your will on the country. However, many have found the partisan bickering unproductive, or have come to realize that Dems need to grow their majorities in Congress if they want to get anything of substance done. These voters take Obama at his word when he says he is trying to build a broad, progressive majority.
Who can stop Obama?
Edwards? Highly unlikely, Obama has clearly become the "alternative to HRC" candidate. AS long as the media spins the story as Obama vs. HRC, Edwards will not get enough oxygen. He does not have the media buzz, the poll standing, the money, or the organization to compete.
HRC? She probably has a better chance than JE, but she faces long odds. I would argue that the window for recovery is almost impossibly small. Hillary is primarily a restoration candidate in a change election. She is boxed in by her tough, many would say mean, image. Every time she tries to attack Obama she only reinforces her image problem. Her alternating efforts to appear warm and likable and her efforts to knock Obama down only cement her lack of authenticity. The bottom line is simple, many Dems and most independents do not feel that they can trust Hillary.
Can the Repubs stop Obama? Not likely. This almost certainly sets up as a Democratic year. Bush fatigue, Iraq, economic uncertainty all portend a strong opportunity for Dems. Occasionally, these general trends can be overcome by a particularly strong candidate from the other party. However, the Repub field looks very weak. McCain is old and bears the heavy burden of the war. Romney is a flip-flopping, phoney with zero foriegn policy experience. Huckabee is charming and well spoken, but he is far out of the mainsteam and his tax proposals alone are a huge albatros, it is hard to see him winning the nomination let alone a general election. Rudy is in serious trouble and burdened by so many scandals it is hard to see him rallying his party to victory.
I am not trying to be a naive cheerleader, but the more that you think it through, it looks like it is all over. Barrack Obama is clearly on the march to the White House with no insurmountable obstacles in sight.
We will no doubt keep arguing in the months ahead, but I think the outcome is clear. Barrack Obama, President of the United States of America.
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